Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1266
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 12 2025 22:17:29

ACUS11 KWNS 122217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122217=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...Parts of extreme southern MN into far northern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122217Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible into
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in the vicinity of a
surface front across far southern MN. Frontal convergence and weak
low-level warm advection may continue to support development of an
additional strong storm or two near the front into this evening.
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near/south of the front combined with
effective shear of 30-35 kt could support marginal supercell
potential with a threat for isolated hail and damaging wind, and
possibly a brief tornado if any supercell can persist in the
vicinity of the surface boundary.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/12/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-fyV_fTNSOaWy6cWZEvc_cxu_yaEY09r8BGFL0uLCbYCQ4XCLIoE91mSIZTjubqH67qc7YjU5=
6P-91GrYqg4jhsXVKM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44029536 44009358 43839286 43619285 43259321 43129425
            43189522 43259545 43429556 43529559 43599558 43899556
            44029536=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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