Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 12 2025 07:16:38

ACUS03 KWNS 120715
SWODY3
SPC AC 120714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts
of the central Plains.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over the northwestern
states on Saturday, with an upper high over northern Mexico, AZ and
NM. Modest west/northwest winds aloft will exist along the US/CN
border and into the Great Lakes, with generally weak shear across
the remainder of the CONUS.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will stretch roughly from
the Black Hills eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with a large area
of 60s to 70s F dewpoints over most of the southern and central
Plains, mid to lower MS Valley, and across the Southeast.

....Plains...
Areas of early day storms may be ongoing over parts of NE, KS and
OK, depending on what survives the previous night. Otherwise, a lee
trough will develop over the central and southern High Plains during
the afternoon, with strong heating contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE. Although shear will remain weak, little if any capping will
be present during peak heating, and the very moist air mass should
yield areas of storm development from the Black Hills southward into
eastern NM. Additional activity may redevelop, or even persist, in
association with any robust early activity or residual outflows.
Given weak shear, strong outflow and damaging gusts appears to be
the primary concern, although sporadic hail may occur with initial
development over the high Plains. Uncertainties exist in this weak
forcing setup, but local corridors of higher probabilities may be
needed in later outlook updates.

...Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$

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