Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1256
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 23:34:08

ACUS11 KWNS 112333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112332=20
NEZ000-COZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...extreme northeast Colorado into northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112332Z - 120100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated instance of severe wind or hail may accompany
any storm that can become established along a baroclinic boundary. A
WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery depict
an increase in deep-moist convection along a baroclinic boundary,
extending from west-to-east mainly over northern NE. Here, 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a warm boundary layer
(characterized by 90 F surface temperatures), resulting in up to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE along the boundary. Stronger mid-level flow is
glancing the region to the north, supporting 25-30 kts of effective
bulk shear. This will support multicells and perhaps a transient
supercell along the boundary, where a couple instances of severe
wind/hail are possible. Given the isolated nature of the severe
threat though, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 06/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8MbMge89G3y6kejTvr-g7zyVpNcBdTo_QvTMM0kk-D9okfOQpjh2CIwR3crQLQI4B32PTTRiZ=
R7UBjIrnU-DJGwTkd8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40590294 41540252 42370127 42779919 42689773 42409724
            41979743 41689870 41239982 40850083 40440180 40590294=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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