Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 19:59:19 ACUS01 KWNS 111959 SWODY1 SPC AC 111957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are possible today across parts of Texas and the Upper Midwest. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the northern Intermountain region/northern High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ....20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to account for recent convective trends. Latest surface observations/RAP mesoanalysis shows fairly stable conditions across the TX Coastal Plain in the wake of the MCS currently approaching the Sabine River. However, lingering low-level moisture coupled with increasing ascent/cooler temperatures aloft associated with the approaching mid-level trough should promote thunderstorm development across the TX Slight risk area late tonight into early Thursday morning. Latest forecast guidance and soundings continue to hint at the potential for strong/severe storms, so opted to maintain current risk categories despite the limited severe threat in the short-term. ...Moore.. 06/11/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ ....Central/East Texas... A complex/muddled mesoscale scenario exists regionally owing to a decayed but lingering MCS across east/southeast Texas and multiple lingering convectively enhanced MCVs in proximity to a weak/slow-moving upper trough. Some supercell potential exists today across East Texas and vicinity, with redevelopment expected later today into tonight back west/southwest into central/south-central Texas. Where air mass recovery/destabilization occurs, lingering convectively enhanced flow field could support some supercells and well-organized clusters capable of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado risk, pending a sustenance of moderately strong winds in the lowest 2-3km AGL and possible outflow/ boundary-interaction factors. ....Upper Midwest including northern IA/southern MN/southern WI... Have introduced a near-frontal-zone focused categorical Slight Risk for an anticipated severe hail/wind risk expected later this afternoon through early/mid-evening. This will be ahead of a convectively-enhanced shortwave trough, with moderately strong westerlies atop the west/east-oriented frontal zone. While low-level moisture will not be robust by late-spring standards, steep lapse rates and moderately strong buoyancy will support potentially severe storms. ....Northern Great Basin/Rockies... A readily evident shortwave trough in late-morning water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon/northern Nevada and southwest Idaho will continue east-northeastward today, reaching the northern High Plains late tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, particularly from Idaho eastward across much of Montana/Wyoming and northern Utah. The strongest storms will pose a risk of severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail. ....Eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia... A moist/moderately unstable environment and modest-strength vertical shear will support some potential for locally damaging winds and hail until around sunset. See Mesoscale Discussion 1249 for additional short-term details. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .