Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1252
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 19:58:24

ACUS11 KWNS 111957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111957=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-112100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...central Idaho...western Wyoming...southwestern
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111957Z - 112100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will pose a marginal risk
for severe wind and hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across much
of central ID into southwestern MT and western WY this afternoon. A
few stronger cores have emerged over the last hour. Moisture remains
somewhat modest but deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and steep
lapse rates may support risk for a few instances of severe wind and
hail through the afternoon/evening. This should largely be tied to
the diurnal cycle, with weakening after sunset. Should more
organized clusters along outflow occur, this may continue into
central/eastern MT through the evening. Overall, the spatial extent
of this threat should remain too localized to necessitate watch
issuance.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Yo4glPEjyuUTQ1X89sgOGcxqgxX23Odubj1PMIWSYeZX5Za7JyEzrL1jPlibE_9I_JBep-nu=
48Leega4taKLAyYPYw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...
BOI...PDT...

LAT...LON   45191719 45911624 46451475 47091181 46961005 46110915
            45690895 43990754 43150693 41970700 41350788 40970957
            41961262 41801337 42631478 43351580 45191719=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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