Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1251
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 19:40:08

ACUS11 KWNS 111939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111939=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-112145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX into western LA and far southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111939Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible the remainder of the afternoon as
a line of storms tracks northeast across the ArkLaTex vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has maintained organization along
surging outflow as convection moves through a corridor of weak to
moderate instability this afternoon. Some embedded stronger cells
within this line are likely aided by 25-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes within the unstable airmass.  Precipitable water values
near 2 inches may further aid in sporadic wet microbursts, and
locally strong gusts will be possible the remainder of the
afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited,
and a watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Rwquf-Wp0kXJJzXPgQY5yNf_xQiR3QT1FfBPTPRJSLlxYvgFYicrjhaob_lPdHWzg71zn-kQ=
dBYkYYWATVyV6PdgOo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32189482 32789499 33139477 33289422 33179357 32689300
            32069285 31359278 30859316 30729361 30829396 31949472
            32189482=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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