Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1249
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 16:16:18

ACUS11 KWNS 111616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111615=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-111815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Areas affected...Southeast VA into Northeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111615Z - 111815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds and small hail through the afternoon. The severe risk is
expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed early this afternoon as strong heating of a very moist
airmass has resulted in weak to moderate destabilization across the
region. Modest mid/upper west/southwesterly flow resides over the
region as an upper trough lifts northeast across the Eastern
Seaboard today. This is supporting effective shear magnitudes around
20-25 kt, allowing for transient organized cells. Weak midlevel
lapse rates and modest shear will likely limit longevity of any
stronger/better organized cells. Nevertheless, cool temperatures
aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb) and steepened low-level lapse rates
could allow for gusty winds and small hail with the more intense
cells. The severe risk is expected to remain low overall, and a
watch is not expected.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4wXc1Em_1_IcG0-UtfF3nVY1OS0jdYSLCLnCKGlt4TWIiHPVys6KOc2JweocXR1AYVkbuzz1x=
jjLvNfvhMTx4iqBssY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   37067726 37007608 36447561 35367565 34887648 34877679
            35217742 36437801 36817789 36927776 37067726=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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