Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 12:17:46

ACUS01 KWNS 111217
SWODY1
SPC AC 111216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible
today across parts of Texas. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible in parts of the Upper Midwest and northwestern states.

....Southeast TX...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting areas from
north-central to deep south TX this morning.  These storms are
drifting slowly eastward and will likely weaken through
late-morning.  By mid-afternoon, redevelopment of strong
thunderstorms is expected along residual outflow boundaries and a
quasi-stationary front that extends from east TX into LA.  The
scenario for organized severe thunderstorms in this region is
nebulous, but forecast soundings show pockets of favorable
environment for hail and gusty winds.

....MN/IA...
A compact convectively-enhanced shortwave trough is present this
morning over SD.  This feature will track eastward today, with most
CAM solutions suggesting a small cluster of thunderstorms moving
from southeast SD eastward along the MN/IA border.  Sufficient
afternoon CAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will probably be
sufficient for a few strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail with
these storms.  Some consideration was given to a small SLGT risk in
this zone, but will defer to later outlook updates.

....Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A well-defined shortwave trough is moving across OR/NV.  Increasing
large-scale lift and mid-level moisture will aid in the development
of scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms from ID eastward across
much of MT/WY/northern UT.  The strongest storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.

...Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2025

$$

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