Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 05:30:45 AWUS01 KWNH 110530 FFGMPD TXZ000-111100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 129 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Areas affected...Central to Southern Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110530Z - 111100Z SUMMARY...Mature MCS likely to start weakening over next few hours but continue to have embedded very intense rain rates up to 2"/hr which may support localized totals to 3.5". Increasingly scattered incidents of flash flooding are still possible through morning. DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um shows large MCC across the southeastern Edwards Plateau heading into the more hydrologically sensitive Balcones Escarpment. Cloud tops have been generally cooling on the periphery of the cloud shield, though the center continues to bubble with numerous over shooting tops colder than -75C. AMV/WV suite shows the upper-level vorticity center is starting to carve out some sort of broad closed low across the Pecos River Valley with a upstream speed max at 500-300mb rounding the southwest quadrant with a broad diffluent pattern noted over the core of the MCC. As such, latent heat release from the strong convection and solid outflow is rapidly strengthening an MCV just west of KSAT along the Balcones Escarpment. Surface temperatures still remain in the mid to upper 80s over mid 70s TDs supporting a narrow corridor of remaining significant 3000 J/kg CAPEs to maintain strong updrafts to further feed the MCV. Isallobaric wind response to the MCV is resulting in strong convergence along and downstream in the effective warm-advection wing of the cyclone across the eastern Hill country providing solid convergence to maintain scattered convection even where instability has reduced substantially northward into the Heart of Texas. Given slightly longer duration in weaker steering flow (within the southeast quadrant of the developing closed low aloft further west), localized pockets of 2-3" totals. Combine this with lowered FFG and saturated upper soils from last night's MCS, will keep potential for scattered possible incidents of flash flooding through the late overnight period. South of San Antonio into Southern Texas... Rates will remain strongest with the higher unstable, greater deep moisture (TPW to 2"+) along and southward along the bowing segment. However, given it will continue to be bowing out likely with some downward mixing from mid-level rear inflow jet...faster forward progress should limit overall totals likely to 1-1.5" in 30-60 minutes. Given these rates will be over higher FFG of South Texas, the potential for flash flooding will be likely limited to urban centers and traditionally prone areas with those extreme short-term bursts. So while it is not completely a non-zero chance, the potential for FF, south of I-10 is much reduced. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7LVeQc-XfvkX2x1aP6ZjA0PlHnskdFZrUw5CB32dj7jBuqhwRe5fwyfdAeChSQL2edC2= pIIA93fktz2miJGTaGHvsvg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32229696 31989610 31209593 29959673 28039753=20 27499825 27379893 27529968 27819995 28969935=20 29889954 30909995 31569946 32059829=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .