Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1248
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 11 2025 04:36:43

ACUS11 KWNS 110436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110436 COR
TXZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...parts of Deep South Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 110436Z - 110530Z

CORRECTED TEXT

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind gusts may across and southwest
through south of the Greater San Antonio vicinity through Midnight-1
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Cold pool propagation into the I-35 corridor near and
south of San Antonio has been at rather modest speeds of 20 kt or
so, and peak 3-second gusts along the gust front have recently been
measured around 40 kts.  However, stronger 2-hourly surface pressure
rises in excess of 4 mb have become evident in the 04Z surface
observations at Uvalde and Junction.  Additionally, the most
vigorous convection only slightly trails the gust front, and is
becoming better organized, with a meso-beta scale cyclonic
circulation now forming to the west of San Antonio.  This may be
accompanied by strengthening westerly rear inflow and downdrafts,
aided by heavy precipitation loading, near and to the southwest
through south of Greater San Antonio through 05-06Z.

...Kerr.. 06/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_jBJAXS_5ET07soNLOsbl9KBn82A02zMeks0gl-vi255wL-WlQuSYF05FKmP4Is1_NlO74Qr-=
DrsHXlwhTK3zF5ahRo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27820057 28659949 29999892 29929796 28079827 27130008
            27120082 27820057=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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