Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 21:41:14

ACUS11 KWNS 102139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102139=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-102315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Georgia into western South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102139Z - 102315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the
stronger cells embedded within a loosely organized MCS. A WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS continues to track eastward
amid a weakly forced/sheared environment. The MCS seems to be driven
primarily by modest cold pool organization from multicellular
mergers, with diurnal heating and associated surface-based buoyancy
being the main factors supporting convective sustenance. Given
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the MCS, a couple of strong,
damaging gusts may still occur over the next few hours. The severe
threat should remain sparse at best, precluding a WW issuance.

...Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!--eh9AwPT7NfEpSRgfeGVO0pE_fhcQ0wXUeuLpVqERJLGJlE8NZhEQ-CcVkOt8wWe7OmTDT_I=
8jIbk6N9eoCNPSbN08$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33278266 33458361 33648371 33908360 34218336 34428303
            34538227 34368149 34088114 33678113 33448140 33278215
            33278266=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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