Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1242
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 18:46:29

ACUS11 KWNS 101845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101844=20
MTZ000-101945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101844Z - 101945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for wind and hail through the afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted on visible satellite across
the high terrain in western Montana. A storm or two have initiated
over the last 30 minutes. As large scale ascent increases in
combination with orographic ascent through the afternoon, additional
thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain  before
moving into the lower elevations. With several more hours of heating
expected, lower elevations should see MLCAPE generally around
250-500 J/kg by the late afternoon. This will support potential for
damaging winds and a few instances of hail. Flow across the region
is generally weak which should discourage a more organized threat
and the need for a watch.

...Thornton/Mosier.. 06/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Gc4d6N7s0MsNTPWetmXyJTXwtGXryI3ocOfyV3L1RpBsmH0JHJ4cJRF2WrGvmY6TxESNx4tp=
TJkPuO79jbfDbDR8bU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   48081401 48501420 48901425 49041402 49061253 48531158
            47220961 46641050 46321178 46311206 46871299 48081401=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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