Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 12:19:23 ACUS01 KWNS 101219 SWODY1 SPC AC 101217 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ....Central/East TX This Morning... Morning satellite/radar loops show a large linear MCS tracking slowly eastward across west-central TX. This line of storms has been primarily non-severe for the past few hours, but with gusty winds along the leading edge. Overnight CAM solutions suggest the MCS will continue to slowly weaken this morning, but a residual MCV may continue to track eastward this afternoon into east TX and central LA. Ample low level moisture and CAPE will support re-development of a few strong storms. The current forecast scenario is for this activity to be weakly organized this afternoon. However, if re-intensification of this MCS can occur, a SLGT risk area may be needed in east TX/central LA in later outlook updates. ....Southeast NM/Southwest TX This Afternoon/Evening... The outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned MCS is sagging southward across southwest TX. Southeasterly low-level winds behind the outflow boundary, coupled with afternoon heating, is expected to draw ample low-level moisture westward by late afternoon. This will result in scattered intense thunderstorms over the Davis mountains and vicinity. Storms will build southeastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ....Coastal GA/SC... Another remnant MCS is tracking across southern GA. A few hours of daytime heating ahead of this activity could lead to intensification by late morning, with a risk of strong wind gusts. ....Eastern FL Peninsula... Full daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will yield strong instability later this afternoon along the northeast and east-central FL peninsula - leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak but sufficient deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could result in locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ....NY/New England... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across NY today. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by mid-afternoon over eastern Quebec and develop southward into central NY. A moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place over the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, aiding a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .