Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 06:00:50 ACUS01 KWNS 100600 SWODY1 SPC AC 100559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies. ....Far Southeast New Mexico/Far West Texas/Rio Grande Valley... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across New Mexico today. At the surface, a moist axis will be located across the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley, where moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. As instability becomes maximized, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the trough in the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and far West Texas. This convection will spread southeastward into the Rio Grande Valley. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z to the east of the Davis Mountains of west Texas have MLCAPE reaching 3500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/Km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more intense cores could produce hailstone greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the storms will be high-based with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This will contribute to a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat should gradually spread southeastward across far West Texas in the late afternoon, moving into the lower Rio Grande Valley during early evening. ....Southern Plains/Sabine River and Lower Mississippi Valleys... Mid-level flow will become westerly today from parts of the southern Plains into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the region. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a convective cluster or line could be ongoing at the start of the period across the western Texas Hill Country. If this occurs, then these storms could pose a marginal severe threat as they move eastward from central Texas into southeast Texas late this morning and early this afternoon. A few marginally severe storms could also develop further east into the lower Mississippi Valley, as surface temperatures and instability become maximized during the late afternoon. ....Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of the trough in the Atlantic Coastal states. As temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon from parts of the Carolinas northward to the vicinity of New York City. The strongest instability will be located in the Carolinas, where steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for marginally severe wind gusts. Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear could also be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As convection moves eastward out of the higher terrain during the early to mid afternoon, short multicell line segments could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ....Northern California/Southern Oregon... Mid-level flow will become increasingly southwesterly across parts of the West Coast today. A pocket of instability is expected to develop by afternoon from northern California into southern Oregon. As surface temperatures warm within this pocket, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. This convection will move eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northern California and southern Oregon at 21Z have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees F. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a marginally severe gusts and hail. ....Northern Rockies... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Rockies today. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies by afternoon. Weak instability and large surface-temperature-dewpoint spreads could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts as storms move into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Hail will also be possible. ...Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/10/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .