Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1237
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 03:52:48

ACUS11 KWNS 100351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100351=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-100515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

Valid 100351Z - 100515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail should accompany ongoing supercells for at
least a few more hours. Propagation of the southern end of an MCS is
possible, which may also pose a severe gust threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature, sustained supercells continue to
traverse the immediate cool side of a residual outflow boundary from
yesterday's storms, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear remain in place. MRMS mosaic MESH data
continues to show potentially very large hail falling with multiple
supercells, so severe hail potential should continue in the near
future.

The south end of a mature QLCS may be propagating southeastward
along the residual outflow boundary. If this convection can mature
further, a severe gust threat may manifest.

...Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_D0s7UAT6a-uNiV9bFc9EHePoSJXk3JTJQSZSSQ0O6diSks6MB9IbaS9lHZXYBts53UQvS0Nl=
Qxed5k2FG4D6lKVvuM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32680313 32850257 32790178 31510004 30729938 30399951
            30340015 30440063 30870123 31420199 31790259 32050298
            32290316 32680313=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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