Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1236
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 03:32:37

ACUS11 KWNS 100331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100331=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-100500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

Valid 100331Z - 100500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain possible with an approaching MCS
for at least a couple more hours.

DISCUSSION...A mature, cold-pool-driven QLCS is propagating eastward
into a modestly unstable airmass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). MLCINH is
increasing due to nocturnal cooling, which may gradually limit the
severe threat with time. However, in the near-term, scattered strong
to severe wind gusts will remain possible as the long as the cold
pool remains deep and strong.=20

A severe hail threat may also accompany a left-split supercell as it
approaches the southern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405.

...Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6FEcwXbdnLbT-xaDEvU5R_RUeU_EsPvoEWbWJelk7wtlTWgTCl2_H7qk5yiS8cMorP8W2J8UI=
OyEiF27n2q3A4BAspk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33050291 33540306 34220303 34590283 34720227 34560168
            34150123 33600111 33120132 32990185 33050291=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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