Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 02:12:29

AWUS01 KWNH 100212
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1011 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...East-central AL...Central GA...West-central SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100210Z - 100700Z

SUMMARY...A corridor of developing thunderstorms within a
favorable training environment may pose a streak of 2-3" totals
with an isolated 4" spot or two.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts an elongated trough along the East
Coast States, with a few inflections noted toward the tail end
across the Southeast.  The lead wave is fairly strong and
progressive exiting Upstate SC into central NC while the secondary
wave is a big more elongated west to east across central AL.   VWP
shows deep layered unidirectional flow between the waves allowing
for a favorable west to east training profile. RAP analysis along
with CIRA LPW denotes the axis between the waves is increasingly
confluent but also has allowed for increased theta-E air through
depth for a narrow corridor of 1.75-2" total PWats, as well as
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (favored toward 2000 J/kg
upstream).

Regional RADAR shows, old outflow/bowing segment from older
convection crossing the AL/GA, in front/along the wave, surface to
boundary layer winds appear to be increasing slightly with
enhanced backed flow for convergence/ascent into the mid-level
confluence axis.  As such, EIR and RADAR show increasing
convective activity with spotty stronger updrafts/cooling towers
across central GA into West central SC.   So, while the
inflow/convergence is likely the most limiting factor, it is
currently sufficient for cells capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates.=20=20

Given the length of the corridor and likely consistent
unidirectional flow to maintain training even through a narrow
axis, there should be solid opportunity for training/repeating to
allow for a streak or two of 2-3" in 1-3hrs with perhaps an
isolated 4" spot or two; and while the ground conditions are
relatively dry, especially toward the SC/GA line, these rates and
potential totals have solid potential for isolated FFG exceedance
and possible incident(s) of flash flooding over the next few
hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4jQKAe_xI8NoO_mNKwuxAWS9XtxxTnxQMeAu6_Y8qnsHAvmraTVBkxy0LwWMcaKbvf7k=
rLdpUq3w7BoPbMQqJXFDCbo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33868108 33428073 32928135 32698193 32278373=20
            32228479 32308558 32558594 32988591 33218511=20
            33598324 33818193=20

=3D =3D =3D
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