Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1235
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 01:40:27

ACUS11 KWNS 100138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100138=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-100315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

Valid 100138Z - 100315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) may still occur
with some of the stronger, sustained supercells. Supercell
development closer to the NM/TX border is likely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have matured along residual
convective outflow, with MRMS MESH tracks indicating 2+ inch stones
falling, and 2.5 inch hail also reported. With 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE
residing ahead of these storms, additional instances of significant
severe hail may occur. Visible satellite imagery indicates attempts
at convective initiation along the boundary closer to the NM/TX
border. Any storms that can develop and mature may produce
significant-severe hail.

...Squitieri.. 06/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4TCK5mkrrIFxT-8fKcvFQELkpECReyajo9JZGV58VYawT7xRp_ueDNObA3_bAAzpAUN5aYbXu=
KGAs7F1NrXGPtcG09A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31850239 32270327 32630366 32830347 32630263 32430181
            32140100 31780014 31159961 30709972 30600021 30930115
            31850239=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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