Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 10 2025 01:16:37

AWUS01 KWNH 100115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-100710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM into West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100110Z - 100710Z

SUMMARY...The combination of leading discrete cells and a
developing MCS ejecting out of the NM High Plains will lead to the
potential for scattered flash flooding and isolated rainfall
totals of 2-4", mostly occurring within a few hours.

DISCUSSION...A lingering outflow boundary/cold front extending
across central TX towards the corner of southwest NM has already
triggered convection in the form of discrete cells (some
supercells) between Midland and San Angelo. Reflectivity values
greater than 65 dBZ and hydrometeor classification depict these
cells as primarily a hail/severe threat to start as opposed to
heavy rainfall. However, given the slow motion of these cells and
the eventual influence of an approaching MCS, flash flooding could
become more of a concern into the early overnight hours.

ML CAPE values of 2,000-3,000 J/kg remain in place along with
east-southeasterly flow converging along the outflow/frontal
boundary helping maintain a relatively moist column and PWs
1.-1.5" (highest east near San Angelo in the highlighted area).
This convergence promotes the greatest potential for longer
duration rainfall and amounts that may exceed local FFG.

3-hr FFG in the area is as low as 2-2.5" in local spots but
generally as high as 3-4". This remains the limiting factor
regarding confidence in flash flooding magnitude as well as the
expected fast forward motion of the later MCS ejecting out of NM.
However, coverage of heavy rainfall with amounts up to 4" where
cells merge and/or on the northern and southern fringes of the MCS
near any developing bookend vortices could trigger a few instances
of flash flooding.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!67dXaBBc9SQ2iLzT0sX4G3-K5ozsP0tF8C3lLhZizsxMl2yoooYfMIZgt_G7_JFBBd3d=
gXnpKwh7hbXdY3bznqsHoHU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34920343 34870257 33690162 32730096 31830044=20
            30980012 30880086 31490149 31930233 32110346=20
            32460407 33150428 34220398=20

=3D =3D =3D
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