Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1232
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 23:16:30

ACUS11 KWNS 092315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092314=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Western New York and portions of Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...

Valid 092314Z - 100045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401
continues.

SUMMARY...Some wind/hail risk continues, albeit very isolated, for
the next few hours. New watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to widespread convection has developed across
the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region within deep
southwesterly flow regime ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Much
of this region has been convectively overturned, or is only modestly
unstable, with an axis of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE extending across
central PA into portions of western NY. Deep layer shear is more
than adequate for organized updrafts, but low-level shear is fairly
weak. Current thinking is ongoing clusters and line segments will
continue for the next several hours as they propagate across the
narrow instability corridor. Locally damaging winds, and perhaps
marginally severe hail, will be the main threats with this activity.
While some organization will be maintained beyond the eastern edge
of ww0401, air mass appears too  meager downstream to warrant a new
watch.

...Darrow.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-VR2ZaYCv9N7Naae0yKr60N9j2ySyFvMOhrvvjJ7j6NeBUeFqxqequJiknzEW4PKTExqPGioO=
hlD5eNGLrcFfljxNzw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41097940 42247787 43277708 42867559 40627812 41097940=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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