Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1231
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 22:55:17

ACUS11 KWNS 092255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092254=20
TXZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092254Z - 100030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop this evening, with severe
wind and hail a concern. A WW issuance may be needed if greater
storm coverage becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...Attempts of convective initiation have been noted amid
an agitated CU field along a remnant outflow boundary amid afternoon
peak heating. It is possible that multiple storms may develop over
the next few hours. Should this occur, 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40
kts of effective bulk shear will promote the maturation of
supercells atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer. Severe wind and
hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The strongest of
supercells could produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Therefore, if the development of multiple supercells becomes
apparent, a WW issuance may eventually be needed.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5OX9ucBxeGktoiAACF8DD6zk0ntjqYN_GQPadJ40mcG29VbiWQYMuYIqC80-HIHO8NpaxklCq=
2Dkn_Gr0xiQ3qG42mQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32390191 32010060 31399970 30809921 30459923 30319966
            30290039 30680102 31190164 31770204 32390191=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.