Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 21:01:52

AWUS01 KWNH 092101
FFGMPD
NMZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092100Z - 100300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for
several more hours anchored near the terrain of the Southern
Rockies, before activity begins to eject into the southern High
Plains by 00z tonight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST infrared satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across northern NM over the last hour across much of
northern NM and the terrain of the southern Rockies. Maximum
hourly rainfall rates have been estimated per MRMS up to 2"
briefly near Las Vegas, NM earlier this afternoon. This activity
should continue through at least 00z centered over the higher
elevations until activity congeals and a large cold pool develops,
helping eject convection southeastward into the southern High
Plains. Additionally, a shortwave diving across southern CA
evident in GOES-East WV imagery will add to the ability for storms
to continue sliding eastward once forward motion picks up.

Sensitive terrain across the Sacramento Mts. and burn scars from
the past few years remain the greatest concern for flash flooding
as any storm will likely contain rainfall rates greater than
0.5"/hr. PWATs per SPC's mesoanalysis are in the 0.75-1.0" range
and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater in the High Plains). This is
sufficient enough to maintain updrafts further until the growing
cold pool takes over. NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-2 m relative soil moisture
show much of northern NM in the 80-90th percentile, but with the
central High Plains closer to average. FFG is as low as 1.5-2.0"
for 3-hr in the highlighted area outside of burn scars, with
recent HRRR guidance showing additional scattered 3-hrly totals
around 1.5". This information leads to the potential for
additional scattered flash flooding coverage into this evening.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!--kVV-qNvsnlPSCg4i3e_o5haCriyHHUmFgjyDBDRskDVkOT02vVH1vDwE8TzzSicfxy=
XKRfCKJ0EX8ZZLKBEZVbAFQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36990510 36970405 36550368 35950408 35260409=20
            34430357 33520385 32890453 32500515 32680576=20
            33220586 33670608 34050662 34510690 35170699=20
            35850694 36400667 36790605=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.