Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 19:52:32

AWUS01 KWNH 091952
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091950Z - 100150Z

SUMMARY...Some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible into the early evening hours, especially across parts
of southern AL where recent heavy rain has left soils saturated.

DISCUSSION...The southwestern flank of old outflow boundary
related to an MCV trekking across northern GA has stalled near the
central Gulf Coast and is seeing continued cellular east-west
thunderstorm development over the last few hours across southern
MS/AL. Currently storms are struggling to produce rainfall rates
over 1.5"/hr per MRMS, but these rates should increase as higher
instability and PWATs advect into the region. SPC mesoanalysis
highlights 4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the area near southern MS and
southeast AL, which falls in the area of inflow towards developing
storms as the column mean flow remains out of the west-southwest.
This is also parallel to the linear orientation of storms and will
promote some backbuilding and more widespread heavy rainfall as
opposed to cellular activity due to the influence of a shortwave
approaching the lower Mississppi Valley. PWATs are as high as 2"
and the 18z RAP depicts these values increasing and expanding with
time across the central Gulf Coast states this evening.

Recent HRRR and experimental RRFS guidance is similar with respect
to current convection, but differ with potential initiation
southward closer to the Gulf Coast. The RRFS is likely overdone,
but with the eventual convection also most likely greater in
coverage than HRRR guidance given parameters available (HRRR
suffers from a low-level dry bias). Additionally, soils remain
saturated near the border of south-central AL and the far
northwestern FL Panhandle where MRMS estimates an average of 2-5"
of rain has fallen in the last 12 hrs. This results in an area of
greatest concern for more widespread and impactful flash flooding.
Otherwise, the remainder of the highlighted region more isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible.


Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4BR4jsq545OsDMOgJeXhuzHlNlCETLmqgN0m3BjDqE1TDTwgroLnKKdZR_j0og48CZ2m=
C4nGlGSJxai1xLsoy9TUPAw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   31778695 31608621 31338587 30988614 30868705=20
            30758807 30508921 30568991 31009000 31488921=20
            31738820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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