Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 19:28:43

ACUS03 KWNS 091928
SWODY3
SPC AC 091927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...PARTS OF TEXAS...AND THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over parts of
the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and Texas.

....Northwest/Intermountain West...
Latest guidance continues to depict a low-amplitude shortwave trough
transitioning east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin on
Wednesday, reaching Wyoming Wednesday night. A belt of enhanced
mid-level westerlies will likely accompany this feature, with the
strongest winds aloft currently expected to be located over southern
Idaho and northern Utah around peak heating. Boundary-layer moisture
will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon with a broad region of
at least low-probability severe wind/hail potential across parts of
Idaho/Utah into Montana/Wyoming.

....Upper Midwest/Corn Belt...
On the southern fringe of moderately strong low-amplitude
westerlies, a west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to
strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture
advects northward toward the region. A related and somewhat confined
corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the
front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass
to the north. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind
within a confined corridor centered from Wednesday late afternoon
into evening.

....Southern/central Texas...
A low-confidence forecast persists with some severe-weather
potential as a weak slow-moving upper low drifts across Texas, with
other uncertainties related to Tuesday's convection and effective
boundary placement. Will maintain a low-probability severe risk
mainly across the southern to central parts of Texas where pockets
of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear,
may be realized.

...Guyer.. 06/09/2025

$$

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