Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1227
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 19:11:47

ACUS11 KWNS 091911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091911=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-092045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern West Virginia...far
western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091911Z - 092045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to continue eastward with a few instances of
severe wind and hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues eastward across
portions of central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon. This has
largely remained sub-severe, however, temperatures have warmed into
the mid 70s to 80s ahead to this broken line, with MLCAPE around
250-500 J/kg. Flow across this region is generally weak. Deep layer
shear around 25-30 kts may be sufficient for some organized segments
capable of damaging wind. Given the weak flow for support, a watch
is not likely to be needed but trends will be monitored through the
afternoon/evening.

...Thornton/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!98qmM9I726-SVXipygstcHmRz7Z8vEboYdNdOW9kZZbphrp7BScjiExfWsFblzqR11ht-TcSa=
3h2ugUx8T1wfZFpTKI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   37288451 38168387 38458267 38428182 38348100 38028067
            36938122 36688282 36698441 37288451=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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