Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1224
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 18:18:15

ACUS11 KWNS 091818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091817=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091817Z - 091945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and hail to
increase through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage across
Lake Michigan as forcing for ascent increases with an upper-level
wave approaching. Across the Michigan peninsula, cumulus is
increasing as well. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
250-500 J/kg. Enhanced flow aloft with the wave and steep lapse
rates will support potential for damaging winds and some instances
of severe hail. This area is being monitored for a potential watch
this afternoon.

...Thornton/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!48DGBosP66LDRoe48fBhZW_mFAzFYlE-_h3M51q7U2grMbhrfyBHzjzzSuCRFSYo8QdGKByd4=
Cq_s3wlIqgNp2McWOM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42008667 42908662 43778655 44478623 44848593 44568373
            44178339 43528327 42668357 41958378 41528416 41228534
            41358635 42008667=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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