Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1223
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 18:06:46

ACUS11 KWNS 091806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091806=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091806Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and hail to
increase in coverage this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are located across an eastward
progressing cold front in central OH and western PA. Ahead of the
front, a few cells have shown some uptick over the last hour. Broken
cloud cover ahead of the front is allowing pockets of heating, with
MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Though thermodynamic profiles are not overly
favorable, deep layer shear around 30-40 kts with the upper-level
wave may support organized segments and clusters capable of damaging
wind and hail. This area will be monitored for watch potential this
afternoon.

...Thornton/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_yQ69ipHO6_vk1pPPHSuRt_eoxFyb76Q1GiPkyaunYV65b117g9opHHqkTcmXhOciSs4zAFvp=
MQmpjmPk8Btvyj6pKo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39168392 40278315 41108216 41648131 41948060 42447940
            43007846 43067783 42917727 42497706 41657770 40787826
            39917923 39298087 38808312 38878372 39168392=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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