Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1222
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 17:54:14

ACUS11 KWNS 091754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091753=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL into parts of southwest
GA and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091753Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional
strong gusts and small hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing along outflow from morning
convection and on the southern periphery of an MCV near the central
MS/AL border. Strong heating to the south of the surface boundary
has allowed temperatures to warm into 80s to near 90 F amid low to
mid 70s F dewpoints. This is resulting in a corridor of moderate
instability. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 20-30 kt.
This should limit a more organized severe risk, but high PW and
steepened low-level lapse rates will support strong downburst winds.
Some greater damaging wind potential could develop if clustering and
updraft consolidation occurs, but this remains uncertain. Some small
hail also could occur with any stronger/more persistent cells. While
watch issuance does not appear imminent, trends will be monitored
for any better convective organization.

...Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!54BSLOYcHu2AHT8RgvOOA1ujs-XZc7OfDaoNfMMmTSoF2T-wuWptJjyCFl0rAE3cbsPMlUEvy=
B3PJIq_7iytuQ2FZ6I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31838971 32138770 32698563 32478503 31708453 31278445
            30878472 30748578 30778627 30748699 30658839 30688906
            31238991 31508998 31838971=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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