Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 07:32:27 ACUS03 KWNS 090731 SWODY3 SPC AC 090730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and Intermountain West, the Corn Belt, and southern Texas. ....Northwest/Intermountain West... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress across the northern Great Basin towards the WY Rockies through 12Z Thursday. Its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should remain rather confined, likely centered on southeast ID/northern UT during late afternoon Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, contributing to mainly weak buoyancy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon Wednesday with a broad region of at least low-probability severe wind/hail across parts of ID/MT/UT/WY. ....Corn Belt... A west/east-oriented baroclinic zone is expected to strengthen by Wednesday afternoon as richer low-level moisture advects north across the central states and surface ridging noses south across MN in the wake of a shortwave trough over eastern ON. A confined corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy may develop south of the front, but will quickly weaken in the cooler/drier stable air mass to the north. Mid-level westerlies will similarly have a gradient across the boundary, stronger north and weaker south. Overall setup could support isolated severe hail/wind within a confined corridor from late afternoon into evening on Wednesday. ....Southern/central TX... A low-confidence forecast is anticipated as a low-amplitude shortwave trough stalls on Wednesday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of it with southwesterlies, and behind it with northwesterlies. Convective evolution has large spread across guidance and overall appears nebulous given the synoptic pattern. Have delineated a low-probability severe risk mainly across the southern to central parts of TX where pockets of greater destabilization, coincident with modest deep-layer shear, may be realized. ...Grams.. 06/09/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .