Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1216
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 02:28:04

ACUS11 KWNS 090226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090226=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into extreme southeast
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...399...

Valid 090226Z - 090400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 399
continues.

SUMMARY...Widespread severe winds are expected across northern Texas
with a growing MCS. Further organization into a bow echo is
possible, along with 75-100 mph gusts.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells and intense multicellular clusters
have begun to merge, and they are likely connected by a singular
strong/deep cold pool. This resultant MCS continues to track
southeastward, with a history of several severe gusts, including
those measured at 80-100 mph. Very strong instability and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear precede this MCS. A derecho is likely over
the next several hours, with additional 75-100 mph gusts embedded
within a broader swath of 60+ mph winds expected, as also shown by
some of the latest WoFS ensemble output.

...Squitieri.. 06/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_NaYuNHM9U_whZuojMV4HcfDqype3r5nfwdBbe0xuNyEsIchD8m07ebEFIo1mYzLfFfkjTsNt=
j8kY_I9Ms1qgaIN2zk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32430009 32749998 33539855 34349739 34719704 34509570
            34309512 34139487 33769459 33099440 32509471 32019522
            31709597 31549686 31459776 31479852 31979959 32239999
            32430009=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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