Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 09 2025 00:27:25 AWUS01 KWNH 090026 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-090600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 825 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Northwest and North TX, Central and Southern OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 090025Z - 090600Z Summary...Localized hourly totals of 2"+ with 3-6 hour totals of 3-5" likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding. Discussion...Convection is rapidly proliferating across southwestern and central OK and the TX Panhandle into the Big Country within an extremely unstable environment (MU CAPE 3000-5000 J/kg). While many cells remain discrete (mainly into the TX Big Country and North TX) with many splitting supercells and deviate cell motions, storms are becoming much more linearly organized over the TX Panhandle into western OK, as a cold pool becomes established within an area of broad low-level convergence (situated between a cold front near the OK/TX Panhandle border and a warm front just to the south). Precipitable water values range from 1.4-2.0" (between the 90th percentile and max moving average, per AMA/OUN/FWD sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km) bulk shear of 40-60 kts (also near or above the 90th percentile). MRMS estimates indicate very heavy precipitation in association with the supercells (as much as 1" in 15-min), and hourly accumulations are as high as 1.5-2.5" (mostly in association with training convection where storms are organizing linearlly). A chaotic mix of storm modes will continue into the evening, as the developing MCS continues to grow upscale over the TX Panhandle into southwestern and central OK with splitting supercells and merging (possibly organizing into their own smaller clusters/bows) downstream into the TX Big Country and North TX. Eventually the MCS will become the dominant force and rapidly propagate into southern OK and North TX (with the upwind/downwind propagation vectors favoring ESE-SE movement at 30-50 kts), tracking over areas that will have already seen heavy precipitation from earlier discrete convection. Resulting localized 6-hr rainfall totals (through 06z) of 3-5" are expected (per 18z HREF PMM QPF) with the most favored corridor along and south of the Red River of the South (where 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance probabilities range from 40-70%, shifted a bit south based on more recent hourly HRRR/RRFS data, as well as experimental WoFS data). Merging supercells and training elements will also be capable of 2"+ hourly totals with corresponding HREF 1-hr FFG exceedance probabilities as high as 20-50%. Given both the extreme hourly rates and potential for 3-6 hour totals in excess of 3", scattered instances of flash flooding are likely. Churchill ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7PuY86IVZnMuGVpfzrrdIxQvWlBrLbH_y1-spoByVky45f0XovAiLEHVcw8AXrYJ18RB= MgwL_tsGnAmIRSccpfJ9CwQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35680155 35440070 35429965 35499884 35689805=20 34609564 32829475 31889619 31799831 32400042=20 33150143 34150143 35360220=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .