Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1203
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 20:30:39

ACUS11 KWNS 082030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082030=20
TXZ000-082230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 082030Z - 082230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat may increase through the
afternoon/early evening.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across the Davis Mountains in
far western Texas this afternoon. The environment in this region is
characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and
deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. This will support potential for
supercells to produce some instances of large to very large hail and
severe winds. MLCIN does increase with eastward extent, which may
limit coverage/duration of this threat. This area will be monitored
for watch potential.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!47fIAaZYSDCHT7lgyj3K7Rp5Coy87ILYT3VEwk8Z0XOM98MH_7S3T2-UdRQvZE51xBZJ805ee=
KQ-r_1WRBD7IuJ2J_I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29800412 30300418 30990396 31410372 31650345 31940245
            31920237 31890198 31820184 31710152 31560128 31290120
            31070124 30440146 29940167 29580238 29230274 29010296
            28930336 29180377 29800412=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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