Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1196
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 16:05:09

ACUS11 KWNS 081605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081604=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-081800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081604Z - 081800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may produce isolated large hail and
strong gusts through early afternoon before more intense convection
develops by mid/late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends have shows towering cumulus
and isolated thunderstorm development late this morning in a
low-level warm advection regime. Strong capping is still in place
across the region, with temperatures still mainly in the 70s in the
OK/TX Panhandles, through strong heating is occurring and
temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s across western OK.
This initial thunderstorm activity will remain elevated, but could
become surface based over the next few hours via mixing and
additional heating/moistening. Regardless, this convection is
developing within a strong MUCAPE gradient near the western OK/TX
Panhandle border, and within 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes.
Very steep midlevel lapse rates are also in place across the region.
As a result, even this initially elevated convection could pose a
risk for large hail.=20

The need for a watch with this early activity is uncertain and
trends will be monitored. Additional, more intense and surface-based
convection is still expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and
will be addressed in subsequent MCDs as the risk evolves over time.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6_lnQeAlBQ1TBZORAazhWpraDAYpyPsBTFMPJVC9UyTay7sbA1N3E9_FoTd8KCv5Z3m5lHmNQ=
gXsnD7i08eP5YHb8_E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34160172 34660193 35390179 36540144 36650120 36660082
            36640014 36199966 34839913 33919907 33429916 33199937
            33170000 33260062 33540109 34110168 34160172=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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