Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 12:42:35 AWUS01 KWNH 081242 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0401 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 841 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Southwest AR...Northern LA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081240Z - 081600Z SUMMARY...Backbuilding and training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour continues to focus across southwest AR and is expectced to edge more into northern LA over the next couple of hours. Given the persistence of the early morning convection, and concerns for renewed development, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are generally likely. DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows notably divergent flow aloft across the broader Arklatex region in association with the ongoing convective activity. A band of very heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas of southwest AR and northern LA, with the convection continuing to feature cloud top temperatures as cold as -65C. Much like the convection farther downstream over MS/AL, this activity over AR/LA is focused with a moist, unstable and convergent low-level flow pattern with this convective cluster also near a front. MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts are both contributing to stronger redeveloping updrafts. PWs are on the order of 1.75+ inches, and with the level of shear and instability, rainfall rates are expected to continue to be well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, with some 2.5 inch/hour rates possible at least in the near term as these areas of stronger thunderstorms continue to persist. Backbuilding and training of convective cells across southwest AR and into northern LA are generally expected to continue at least into the late morning hours given the environment. Recent HRRR runs appear to generally be too quick to weaken this activity. However, the older 06Z run of the HRRR actually has a reasonably good handle of the convective footprint, and would suggest some persistence of the convective threat for a while longer. MRMS FLASH data has already been showing areas of 3-hour FFG exceedance over southwest AR, with CREST Max Unit Streamflow data showing elevated runoff near the town of Magnolia up through Hope. Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches are expected at least locally through late this morning, and this should favor isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QuDGAPqWIvy8KEaHKlz8wjUZVHYmAs2waHBkOtg3WJXRpcz1auXy-sy8X7FqRrfpuN6= gMC0xM8ajshU5VN5oO0Urp8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 33719378 33459293 32869180 32179151 31909220=20 32389331 33329413=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .