Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 11:39:45

AWUS01 KWNH 081138
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-081536-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Central and Easterm MS...Western and Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081136Z - 081536Z

SUMMARY...Areas of locally backbuilding and training thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue for
at least a few more hours across portions of eastern MS through
western and central AL. Additional isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The early-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
notably divergent flow aloft associated with cold-topped
convection across portions of eastern MS through western and
central AL. Some of the more vigorous activity is noted over
eastern MS in particular with cloud top temperatures as cold as
-70C.

This activity is embedded within a convergent low-level flow
regime with a moderately buoyant airmass still situated across the
region. MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 J/kg are in place, with
the greater instability parameters over central and eastern MS.
Additionally, there is as much as 40 to 50 kts of effective bulk
shear playing a role in sustaining stronger updrafts and
convective cores.

The leading edge of the convection has propagated well downstream
through central AL and is also generally losing latitude. However,
the upstream activity over eastern MS has been showing strong
backbuilding characteristics with downstream cell-training as
well. The upwind propagation vectors in a narrow corridor across
central and eastern MS are quite light, on the order of only 5 to
10 kts at best, and with the convergent, moist and unstable
low-level flow pattern in place, there may be additional
convective development for at least a few more hours that also
backbuilds and trains over the same area.

Rainfall rates are already as high as 2 inches/hour, and with the
ongoing repeating cell-activity, additional rainfall amounts of 3
to 4+ inches are possible through late this morning. Given these
additional rains, additional isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding are likely for the next few hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4IbhetcITzOj94SsN7SnBDJtGJpElb7ZwP5Uux9_T9kSOaFnEOaQ_XJlE283KvCY0QXk=
qtYrK8p1F14u-N-Y49h-w7k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33648903 33478758 33208655 32838559 32388512=20
            31848530 31908625 32418834 32768920 33148999=20
            33528990=20

=3D =3D =3D
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