Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1193
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 04:52:12

ACUS11 KWNS 080451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080450=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-080615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern IN...western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080450Z - 080615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out into the early morning.

DISCUSSION...Small rotating cells have occasionally developed
tonight along the southern periphery of a convectively enhanced
midlevel shortwave trough moving across parts of IL/IN. Midlevel
lapse rates are quite weak across the region, and very little recent
lightning activity has been noted with ongoing convection. However,
earlier cells produced some damage across southeast MO, and the KPAH
VWP depicts strengthening low-level flow and enlarging hodographs
within a relatively moist environment. Ongoing convection may be
capable of producing a brief tornado and/or localized wind damage
into the early morning, before remaining convection eventually
subsides.

...Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49rpPylTX55ndJvHWJg88QCTIzSml8NrXzK_u5Oi-JH3QaZQRhL711k9YcezXrhwBD8XqLgnN=
TnMayIAgMbvTJI39_A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37438917 38038861 38728706 38718633 38558597 38038607
            37418641 37118704 37058826 37078905 37438917=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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