Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1191
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 03:28:59

ACUS11 KWNS 080327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080327=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-080530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southern OK and north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 080327Z - 080530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop later
tonight.

DISCUSSION...A band of cumulus remains evident late this evening on
IR imagery across parts of southern OK into north-central/northwest
TX, near a weak confluence zone. One attempt at convective
initiation appears to be underway near the Red River, and 00Z CAM
guidance continues to indicate potential for storm development later
tonight across the region. Aside from modest low-level warm
advection, large-scale ascent may remain relatively nebulous,
resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and duration into
the overnight hours. However, rich low-level moisture, strong
buoyancy, and favorable deep-layer shear will support a conditional
supercell threat if any storms can become sustained within this
environment. Watch issuance is possible if development of multiple
severe storms appears to be imminent.

...Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8KvKJCMUV3E6843us1qGKD8ySRUHgFCjbFhvnpQjXJTAJdZNxoPT82o3-rjJb3KF2JalCamy_=
4zJ3Lg4Ee96RSGWwt4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34249545 33319538 32919541 32789590 32729718 32669805
            32369922 33009995 33459994 34079966 34329769 34349587
            34249545=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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