Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1187
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 00:39:38

ACUS11 KWNS 080038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080038=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-080215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri into adjacent
portions of southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080038Z - 080215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Modest thunderstorm development posing a risk for a brief,
weak tornado could persist another hour or so, into the 8-9 PM CDT
time frame, before diminishing.

DISCUSSION...A weak surface low, beneath the southwestern periphery
of mid-level troughing progression across the middle Mississippi
into lower Ohio Valleys, has become a focus for modest
destabilization and convective development to the southwest through
south of the Greater St. Louis metropolitan area.  Mid-levels are
not particularly cold, and a relative warm layer aloft may become
increasingly inhibitive to deeper convection soon, with the loss of
daytime heating.  However, deep-layer shear is strong, beneath 40+
kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, and focused low-level
convergence along a weak baroclinic zone extending to the southeast
of the low, coupled with stretching associated with near-surface
CAPE, has contributed to short-lived supercell structures posing
potential for brief, weak tornadoes. It is possible that this could
persist another hour or two, spreading toward areas near/north of
the Carbondale vicinity.

...Kerr/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ZvONfFEeJ8BgSH7BjgkMqo9wZza_s2Me7DcxU7N91xju7eHHaTqs_0Hk6N9Fe4TBDHnsNT3D=
yjouDEMl2FxCQZhhgk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

LAT...LON   38369051 38138901 37518908 37418967 37549005 37729084
            38369051=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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