Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1186
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 00:06:32

ACUS11 KWNS 080006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080005=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

Valid 080005Z - 080130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may spread southeast this evening.

DISCUSSION...A couple of strong to potentially severe storms are
ongoing across northeast NM early this evening. Deep-layer shear is
sufficient for supercells, and with increasing low-level moisture
and instability downstream, some intensification is possible in the
short term as storms approach the TX Panhandle. A localized threat
for large to very large hail and isolated strong/severe gusts could
accompany these cells as they move southeastward.=20

With generally nebulous large-scale ascent, longevity of the severe
threat later tonight is uncertain. However, depending on short-term
observational trends, some local expansion of WW 387 may eventually
be needed.

...Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7qLmloBTJKBfSghIZqJFH7VRpFc4Gz0ynKT9rIgw5HO2HhLu4qQAtR6B-6mb6ogJdVz-ZB_m6=
I7xJfan5LKzCC0fV28$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36790450 36800343 36330281 35830093 35050102 35200322
            36200417 36790450=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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