Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 14:33:51

AWUS01 KWNH 071432
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Northeast KS...West-Central
and Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071430Z - 071930Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will be dropping down across northeast KS and into areas of
west-central and northern MO over the next few hours with some
gradual expansion in coverage. Areas of flash flooding will be
possible which will include an urban flooding threat to the Kansas
City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined and relatively compact shortwave
trough ejecting east-southeast across southeast NE this morning is
expected to gradually advance down across far northeast KS and
northern MO going through the early afternoon hours. The dynamical
nature of this system interacting with modest instability with
MUCAPE values of 500+ J/kg should favor at least a sustenance of
the current activity.

However, as the diurnal heating cycle ensues over the next several
hours, there will be downstream areas of especially west-central
and northern MO that destabilize which will favor an environment
conducive for convection to expand in coverage. This will further
be facilitated by low-level convergence near a well-defined low
center over northeast KS and also with a reloading/strengthening
of a synoptic scale front across the region.

The environment on a concentrated basis with the shortwave energy
is rather moist and efficient, and rainfall rates with the
convection over the next few hours should be rather high and
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. Given the rather slow
cell-motions that are currently seen in radar imagery, some
rainfall totals going through early this afternoon may reach 3 to
4+ inches.

This will tend to support a concern for some areas of flash
flooding in a general sense, however, these heavy rains are likely
to impact the Kansas City and St. Joseph metropolitan areas as
well. Thus, there will also be an urban flooding threat over the
next few hours as the heavier showers and thunderstorms arrive.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-X7SFVaQvKYZCM-h07XlCsRA3Q5DUXj73aoO9iF0cnj1ZJZ4ZMpSaKIeb0iD11IUc6qO=
qiQyuFa8Z8-HPgrIjgCZE8g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40569574 40379385 39949208 38989191 38449300=20
            38669514 39329625 40049655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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