Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 12:06:25 ACUS01 KWNS 071206 SWODY1 SPC AC 071204 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ....SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ....AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ....Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ....West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ....MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ...Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .