Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 08:53:18 AWUS01 KWNH 070853 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 452 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Northern AR...Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Southwest MO... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070850Z - 071430Z SUMMARY...Progressive MCS with broad warm advective thunderstorms downstream should support opportunities for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" resulting in possible incidents of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...Mature MCS continues to race east-southeastward across the Flint Hills of south-central KS with very strong dynamics aloft to help maintain it as it progresses into the Ozark Plateau. Very strong divergence aloft within the right entrance to dual jet structure aloft along with latent heat release will continue support strong mid-level cyclogenesis. In response, VWP networks shows broad strengthening of the LLJ with solid veering through 700mb and winds of southwesterly components to over 30kts through depth continuing to advect very unstable (2500-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE) while also pooling deep layer moisture along the southeast quadrant of the MCV to 2-2.1".=20 Given the cyclonic/isallobaric component, winds are also very convergent to support high moisture flux along and downstream of the MCV track. Currently, warm advective cells have developed well into north-central AR with rates of 1.5"/hr well in advance of the cells near the center with rates likely to be over 2"/hr. While cells along the effective warm front are moving more east-northeast relatively and are not ideally training with occasional breaks in intense rainfall rates; there will be multiple periods of heavy rainfall before capping it off with the cells near the effective triple point, followed by an hour or so of moderate broad shield precipitation. This will allow for a broad area of 2-3" totals across the 4 state corners into north-central AR toward 12z. Isolated spots on the line with greatest duration/intensity will likely see 3-4"+ totals and likely will drive incidents of flash flooding through daybreak. While the hydrology gets better further east toward the MS River Valley, the MCS is likely to maintain with similar rates/totals though incidents of flash flooding are more likely to be more scattered in nature relative to upstream in the Ozark Plateau Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6s5mozbPeAO_cwTyadC7xPFNKgZNLWZQOtaumSuz6qzi1-OppzHI007WRuOTKPUN1X-r= GFuJx7LH4R-ltfZZa-9EYrc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37829556 37749422 37409320 36989210 36529119=20 36069049 35279033 34619113 34899383 35579612=20 36369659 37289636=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .