Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 07:30:25

ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are
possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast.

....Southeast...
A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by
midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and
intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has
above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent
of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have
tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the
northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind
fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted
relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic
damaging-wind threat.

....OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a
weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears
weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of
richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities
remain appropriate for this time frame.

....Southern High Plains to TX...
A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This
should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into
central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm
development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or
separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the
front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists
for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night.

...Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.