Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 04:52:17 AWUS01 KWNH 070451 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070930- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1251 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Southern KS...Far northwest TX Panhandle...Northern & Central OK...Adj SW MO/NW AR... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070450Z - 070930Z SUMMARY...Expanding convective coverage as clusters grow upscale into a quick moving MCS. Sub-hourly 1-1.5" with potential for some repeating on southern flank results in scattered spots of 3-4" totals. Given saturated grounds, localized incidents of flash flooding are likely.=20 DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic depict multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX panhandle and west-central OK in advance of expanding linear convective complex across SW KS into the OK Panhandle. The latter has quick momentum at the leading edge of stronger larger scale height-falls/solid DPVA across N KS at the right entrance of an expanding/jet streak that is already 90kts across NEB at 300mb.=20 The combination is providing very strong dynamic ascent and evacuation for developing convective line and MCV across west-central KS. As such strong WAA has been over-spreading much of OK into S KS from untapped very unstable environment with 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strong WAA at the nose of a broad weakly veered 25-30kt LLJ is providing the solid isentropic ascent/moisture convergence along a lingering deep layer moisture pool in OK which is sparking pre-linear MCS thunderstorms. With very broad up/downdraft channels and ample 2" total PWats, cells are becoming very efficient rainfall producers as severe capabilities slowly diminish. Sub-hourly totals of 1-2" have been observed even though deep layer steering allows for some progressive forward motions. These cells are setting the stage and further moistening the upper-layers of an already fairly saturated grounds, especially east of I-35. So it is possible even these pre-cursory cells may result in localized flash flooding conditions prior to the main line. Additionally, proximity to the southern edge of the moisture/instability, may allow for a favored alley for training given shifting too far south may see greater dry/stable air ingestion and favoring maintenance north of the gradient in south-central OK. RADAR trends show, strong vertical ascent along the leading edge of the linear complex into Pawnee/Stafford county KS, potentially further developing to edge of 700mb WAA ascent band north of the Flint Hills in east-central KS. Strengthening MCV under aforementioned strong upper-level support will allow for increased back-shearing of the complex with favorable mid-level inflow jet likely helping to maintain broad moderate shield precipitation in the northern rotor of the MCS near the MCV for prolonged moderate rainfall as well across central KS. However, increasing concern is along the southern rotor of the MCS where forward propagation vectors will be slightly reduced allowing for increased orthogonal exposure to the broad southerly LLJ. As such, flanking cells will have a greater potential for training but also having best moisture/instability flux for strongest updrafts capable of 2"/hr. This may result in a streak/swath of enhanced rainfall totals of 3-4" across northeast TX panhandle and likely along/north of I-40, but with solid DPVA/expanding WAA, MCS will expand for broader area of enhanced rainfall potential into Northeast OK and eventually southwest MO/NW AR toward 10z. Forward propagation will likely limit significant totals but spots of 3-4" in less than 3hrs will exceed FFG values over this saturated ground (RSM 0-40cm of 70-75%). As such, flash flooding is considered likely overnight. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5I4C4LpHxwRchMU4c7SmFWnpCtDN4OzEKtky1simUCjW2x-FINgi_FKB5BzLvcftTdbV= i3DYpwOpt3uWs3Aw-pqPHs0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38609681 38359567 37859488 37479445 36779412=20 35649436 35079520 34889646 34919786 35029913=20 35320023 36470222 37080177 37659982 38399875=20 38579789=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .