Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1164
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 01:58:04

ACUS11 KWNS 070157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070157=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-070330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 070157Z - 070330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail and significant severe gusts remain likely
with the stronger storms, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if it becomes evident
that severe storms should persist for several more hours.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells continue to track east ahead of a
dryline, atop an unstable warm sector. Some of these supercells have
a history of producing large hail over 3 inches in diameter, along
with 80+ mph wind gusts. Given up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the
storms, it is not out of the question for these storms to persist
with significant severe wind/hail and sparse tornado potential for
at least a couple more hours. 00Z RAP forecast soundings show
convective inhibition setting in ahead of the ongoing storms, given
15C 700 mb temperatures overspreading a nocturnally cooling boundary
layer. As such, long-term severe potential remains unclear.
Nonetheless, if storms show signs of persisting into west-central
TX, a downstream WW issuance may be needed.

...Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6emBvVgye0f2SxdXvnYQrh0-z-7nzZIlERawAXx45-U4tpH-5ZBJX8Q-X33ZF7ZVTeS281t3C=
qXEYwV7a8Qp8ua62pI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32150368 33680253 34160169 34100049 33969943 33869892
            33489890 32839915 32409954 32070027 31860091 31820175
            31830306 32150368=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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