Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1163
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 00:27:36

ACUS11 KWNS 070027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070026=20
TXZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 070026Z - 070130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...A few tornadoes appear likely over the next couple of
hours, and a strong tornado is possible. Otherwise, severe wind and
very large hail will remain a concern.

DISCUSSION...Right-moving, mature supercells have become established
ahead of the dryline around the Lubbock, TX vicinity. The eastern
storm has produced a well-defined outflow boundary, which the
Hockley County storm has recently anchored to. Both of these storms
are progressing across a highly buoyant airmass, where a low-level
jet is also poised to intensify this evening, resulting in stronger
low-level shear. Both of these storms are capable of producing
tornadoes, in addition to 3+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph, especially in rear-flank downdrafts.
The Hockley county storm appears to have the best chance at
producing a strong tornado should it firmly anchor on the outflow
boundary for extended periods of time.

...Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5RJgy5C19R-9xHNLOQdLx-VXPEdllVK1r81x-sMw7szA6tx7wFoeCCuMypSmw8x5kgFlfklhW=
_X3IbYIO6eIL4AIftQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON   33650263 33790220 33810123 33670036 33410020 33170043
            33130121 33140182 33250249 33380261 33650263=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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