Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1162
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 07 2025 00:11:54

ACUS11 KWNS 070011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070011=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-070145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 070011Z - 070145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe gusts will remain a concern for
at least a few more hours. A tornado also cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have become established further
south along the dryline, from extreme southeast NM into the TX Trans
Pecos. MRMS mosaic radar MESH data suggests that well over 3 inch
diameter hail may be occurring with some of these storms
(particularly the supercell over Loving County, TX). Temperatures
are over 90 F ahead of these storms, but with dewpoints only in the
55-60 F range. As such, these supercells should remain high-based
given 30+ F T/Td spreads. The well-mixed boundary layer will support
severe gusts with these storms, with the very-large hail risk
continuing for the next few hours. Mediocre boundary layer moisture,
and the lack of overall stronger low-level shear, should temper the
overall tornado threat, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

...Squitieri.. 06/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6X3H1-E2XlYeqvKI8tjcPEIqAA1MmNK26Bx-RsxY0wIGx5D_nT1E3Qm65Fp7dac_3nPfLjK5s=
u5zENK-fLLJlfpE_Vk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31030401 31970394 32740367 33010319 32970185 32710109
            32360112 31830163 31230212 30860250 30760340 31030401=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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