Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1160
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 23:18:58

ACUS11 KWNS 062318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062318=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-070045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 062318Z - 070045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...Intense supercells remain possible into this evening. The
tornado threat may increase with time, along with a continued
significant hail/wind risk.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing at 23 UTC just east of
Lubbock, with a history of producing very large hail. This supercell
developed near an outflow boundary, and additional storms are
ongoing farther west along the boundary near the TX/NM border.
Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will
continue to support potential for intense supercells near the
boundary, with a threat of very large hail and isolated but
potentially significant severe gusts.=20

While the boundary layer remains rather warm, increasing moisture
with eastward extent and a tendency for strengthening low-level
shear/SRH with time will support increasing tornado potential,
especially with supercells near/north of the outflow boundary, where
surface winds are backed and richer low-level moisture is in place.

...Dean.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9IP-ZkkTIVbOzLTUhW1bT0p_Dy_WItNBLD2KFdDWqePggkeAIGQZYTu01544y6QyELsa9EItZ=
UcfnZidosIanreOGfM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34330307 34330177 34280049 33700019 32840018 32870240
            32970288 33240297 33560297 34330307=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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