Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1157
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 21:53:23

ACUS11 KWNS 062153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062152=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-062315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and northern Alabama into
northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062152Z - 062315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will remain possible through the
rest of the afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Several strong pulse-cellular and multicellular storms
have matured over the past few hours given strong heating of a moist
boundary layer. 7-8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates atop 70+ F
surface dewpoints are contributing to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While
the warm sector is overspread by only 25-35 kts of effective bulk
shear, these conditions should support continued organization of
multicells with wet downburst potential. The severe threat, however,
should be isolated, precluding a WW issuance.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2clyIHXf2U5KyVLIbY14Z4G0Z2cWgCDVkBXTrkT2gOxhvzv9kisFXhtzL8kVlERK4SyFBnpg=
yns4R0ejQPeaAnoKAY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   32218754 32548812 32868817 33638776 34348720 34818599
            34888516 34778470 34358458 34008464 33388488 33098514
            32678568 32258628 32128687 32218754=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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