Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 06 2025 21:21:43

ACUS11 KWNS 062120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062119=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast New York to northern
Connecticut...central Massachusetts...and southern New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062119Z - 062315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms should continue into early evening, with
damaging gusts and large hail the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms are underway across portions of New
England, where strong wind gusts and large hail have been reported
over the past several hours. Though deep-layer shear is relatively
weak across New England, ample buoyancy resides ahead of ongoing
storms, where low 80s F surface temperatures are contributing to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, strong wind gusts and hail may continue
with both pulse cellular and multicellular storms, though the severe
threat should remain isolated given weak shear.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_8cZZnxcblTLVsHtYUcEA9SN3QY7FarMhWFgDt9qtr_adc1SEK55S2XE5uNW8r_0I-FINlgYa=
jz3p4jy4jzaWzyER_o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41457429 42877280 43517205 43567133 43257079 42827093
            42287160 41877239 41497317 41357381 41457429=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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